Tuesday, 1 January 2013

JanWk1 - SPY Bull Reversal



I wish I could have said I saw that coming, but I didn't, and in a wider sense, last night's magnificent performance is characteristic of historical movements. No pattern has broken downwards of the Kumo (Cloud) at this stage, and I guess it wasn't going to happen last night. :)

I was eye-balling the market as a matter of fact, even though I know that I shouldn't simply because it is not good for investors trying to harden their trading system to eyeball the market so much. As the saying goes, the more you eyeball the market, the more you are affected emotionally.

The market closed at $142.41 a sharp $2.38 spike upwards. The candlestick has broken out of the Kumo (Cloud) which is a very strong bullish signal. This in a sense maintains the separation between the Kijun Sen and the Tenkan Sen, keeping them away from each other for the time being. The fact that price has crossed over the Kijun Sen, just means that it is a bullish signal and that someone has tweaked the markets so nicely, that we may have avoided whatever fiscal cliff there was.

I had for a short while been rather tempted to sell a call spread last night $145/146 for a 0.08 cents premium. That would have been filled of course, but that would have also increased my chances of being assigned before the week was over, or if the price is in the money, I would most surely be dead. Thank God for a sudden bout of wisdom, and I changed my mind to "sell a pretend trade" and sat out the trade until the fiscal cliff was "technically over".

From the looks of it, it is over. Hooray! ;) Now I can sell a trade on Wednesday, and I am still hoping to sell a call spread. In the meantime, blessed new year!

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