JanWk4 - Thursday: Market Decision Point

Thursday, 24 Jan 2013, the SPY comes to a day of indecision, and rightly so, the market has finally reached the highest point in 52 weeks, and it is deciding if it wants to continue the bull-run tonight (Friday US Time - Morning) or just let it all hang loose.

I reckon it will drop tonight, which means it would have been a good decision to sell a Call Spread last night, perhaps at the peak? Well, I wasn't gonna stay up all night. Plus, the market had a brief moment of indecision and based on that I decided not to trade. Good thing I didn't, and the market ended last night with a cross-hair. A day of indecision, some folks call it the shooting star.

Well, all I wanna know is, will I be able to sell a Call or a Put Spread tonight, and hopefully make some money in the process. :)

We shall see! :)

JanWk3 - Market Summary

A look at the market JanWk3 (Jan 13) and you will realise that the SPY has indeed closed at an all time high at $148.33. Looks like it is going to be another bull run for JanWk4. Although I must admit looking at the ichimoku charts, it seems to suggest that it might be reaching its peak. The Kijun Sen is trending suspiciously very near to the current price.

This means that might be an opportunity for a large correction and for price to cross over the Kijun Sen, and that might kick off a bearish signal. There are some days yet because it will actually be in bearish mode, but looking at the charts, this week JanWk4 is gonna be a big climb as the SPY has broken to an all time high.

My trade for a Call Spread $149.50/150.50 for a premium of $0.04 was collected and kept. :) The option safely expired worthless. It's been a while since I sold anything, but mainly because of family matters. :) It's gonna be exciting this week. Looking forward to market opening in a few minutes. :)

JanWk3 - SPY Uptrend?

Just when you think that there is no more upside to the SPY, it swings a curve ball at you and you are left guessing. So It seems like there is going to be a bearish sentiment very soon, and from the looks of it, it probably would not be able to breach the all time high, at least not this week I think.

That said, I am gonna sell a Call Spread and see if I can get it tonight. Otherwise tomorrow it will be the usual GLD hunting. :) Which is a lot riskier of course.

I am thinking $149.5/150.5 for a premium of $0.04. I know that I might never get it. But who knows what the market is capable of doing these days. :) Hopefully I get the trade.

JanWk3 - SPY More Downside?

The SPY gave a lackluster performance last night, but what is more interesting is that the Kijun Sen has decided to separate from the Tenkan Sen. What this means basically is, to put it in simple terms, is that the Kijun Sen is trying to find the price.

That's not a good thing because once they cross, it becomes a bearish cycle, and that just means more bearish downside. In any case, it looks like it is going to be a bear performance tonight. I am hoping that it will really hit down hard and I can look at selling some Put Spreads. Hopefully.

Well, let's hope for something fantastic to appear soon. :)

JanWk2 - SPY Market Summary

JanWk2 has come and gone. It's a significant week for me because I have a new addition to the family, and that has taken my mind off the SPY for a week. Well if you have been following my journey, then you would also know that family is more important than investment. ;)

The stock market will always be there, but our children may grow up while we are busy chasing after our pipe dreams.

So I said all that to say that I have about an hour to update all my blogs, and here goes. :)

I had suspected that the SPY would go into a dip, but it has continued in a surprisingly interesting manner. The norm would be that the SPY continues its upward trend, simply because the forecast has shown that the SPY is likely to go upwards. So that's the trend. But I am always looking for signals that would buck the trend, and it seemed like a likely signal from the looks of Monday's performance that something major was going to happen.

Today's Saturday morning in Singapore and looking at the SPY's performance last night, it is all very interesting.

The last 4 days of trading has somehow straddled the Kijun Sen and the Tenkan Sen in a bind movement. The two moving averages have been moving together, which is quite interesting. That to be is a sideways movement, neither showing a breakout upwards or downwards, so in a sense, it could still buck the trend next week with a huge drop, or it could carry on its upwards climb.

Last night it ended with a crosshair, the opening and closing of the SPY was at the same spot or fairly close. This to me just means that it is at a crossroad, the market is is still in indecision, and it is very near the all time 52 week high of $148.11 which occurred on 14 September 2012. The market closed at $147.07. It is not much more to go to test the upper limit, and once it breaks, then it is going to enter into uncharted waters.

Exciting days ahead, no trade this week as it was an uncertain week, but I think next week, will show us what I have been looking for. A trade. See you people. :)

JanWk2 - SPY Indecisive

Yesterday's movement of the SPY for JanWk2 is really something else to consider. Why I say this is because the Kijun Sen and the Tenkan Sen are looking to converge. That is a bearish sign as if the SPY tonight were to drop, then we are likely to see prices come crashing down this week.

For the moment, it is still above the Kumo (Cloud), so maybe in that sense it is safe. But, if tonight the SPY were to dip further, then it is going to be bearish from here onwards.

Well, if that were to happen, then we should be able to find a good Put Spread to sell this week. :) Let's keep our fingers crossed.

JanWk1 - SPY Market Summary

Last week's SPY performance, was indeed an interesting lesson for all of us retail investors to not underestimate the power of strong political campaigning and policy making. The role of governments is just as important as price and this is evident in last week's handling of the fiscal cliff.

It was an unprecedented climb to reach the all time high for the year 2012. At one point, the SPY reached 1474, and last Friday's push for higher limits nearly brought it to the all time high.

Will it be able to touch the upper limits again this week? Nobody knows again. But as the saying goes, what goes up, must come down. We will know if this is true for the SPY come JanWk2. Let's stay tuned. :)

JanWk1 - SPY Sideways?

Last night's performance was a little muted despite analysts around the world telling stories that it is going to shoot up to the sky. I was so hopeful as well. This week was a near miss. I say near miss because on 31 December 2012, I actually contemplated selling a Call Spread $145/146 for 0.08 premiums. That would have been disastrous if you have been following the market.

As soon as I had placed that trade, which would have been filled almost immediately, I decided that I would take a break and rest, and almost immediately, I turned my real trade into a pretend trade and went to bed. :) It turned out to a a good move, as the SPY shot upwards to $146 and basically I could only thank God that it all worked out nicely for me.

I could have sold a higher spread, but things were quite uncertain this week with news of the fiscal cliff, and the uncertainty that it brought along for every trader. As we can see, it looks like it has hit an all time high, and this could only mean a shaky week next week. I am uncertain as to what is there going forward, but I am sure it will be a beautiful week of watching the markets move. :)

Tonight's SPY performance looks like a roller-coaster as well. :) Oh well, I am going to bed. Good night people. See you guys next week! Hopefully. :)

JanWk1 - SPY Bull Run!

Well well well. What can I say? You win. If that's the way we resolve issues in the system, then I guess we will be seeing a lot of these deals going forward. Okay, I know if nothing was done, it would have been terrible for the people. I get all that, no worries, I understand.

So the SPY literally shot up to the heavens after the news that the fiscal cliff is resolved through some manner of great policy tweaking. So the huge candlestick showing how the SPY literally leaped upwards to close at $146.06, up $3.65, an amazing movement after having more up strongly on Monday. I guess no one saw that coming.

So it looks like everything is still on track for a major bull-run, albeit, with purposeful government tweaking. So the big question on the minds of every trader. Should I take a chance this week and sell a trade? Well, to be honest, it's a little scary especially with which the way the price has shot up erratically already. Perhaps when things are more settled, we will begin to find our opportunities.

JanWk1 - SPY Fiscal Cliff Solved?!

Just heard some news that the fiscal cliff is somehow resolved at the 11th hour. This just means that the SPY is likely to shoot to the stars. This is very good news as we can look for a suitable Call Spread. I know I will be looking for that opportunity.

Alternatively, I think a Put Spread if sold early might be a good idea as well. :)

Oh well, just thought that this would be a timely piece of information to share.

JanWk1 - SPY Bull Reversal

I wish I could have said I saw that coming, but I didn't, and in a wider sense, last night's magnificent performance is characteristic of historical movements. No pattern has broken downwards of the Kumo (Cloud) at this stage, and I guess it wasn't going to happen last night. :)

I was eye-balling the market as a matter of fact, even though I know that I shouldn't simply because it is not good for investors trying to harden their trading system to eyeball the market so much. As the saying goes, the more you eyeball the market, the more you are affected emotionally.

The market closed at $142.41 a sharp $2.38 spike upwards. The candlestick has broken out of the Kumo (Cloud) which is a very strong bullish signal. This in a sense maintains the separation between the Kijun Sen and the Tenkan Sen, keeping them away from each other for the time being. The fact that price has crossed over the Kijun Sen, just means that it is a bullish signal and that someone has tweaked the markets so nicely, that we may have avoided whatever fiscal cliff there was.

I had for a short while been rather tempted to sell a call spread last night $145/146 for a 0.08 cents premium. That would have been filled of course, but that would have also increased my chances of being assigned before the week was over, or if the price is in the money, I would most surely be dead. Thank God for a sudden bout of wisdom, and I changed my mind to "sell a pretend trade" and sat out the trade until the fiscal cliff was "technically over".

From the looks of it, it is over. Hooray! ;) Now I can sell a trade on Wednesday, and I am still hoping to sell a call spread. In the meantime, blessed new year!