AprWk4 - GLD Market Summary

AprWk4 - GLD Market Summary. Gold is officially in no-man's land. The ichimoku charts above shows exactly that, they are no where near the promise land, but nevertheless, it should not matter for those selling options because deep in those red images of doom and gloom, there's money to be made.

Needless to day some risks had to be taken, but as they also say, no risk no gain! So last night I took a risk. While the GLD market was seemingly still rather volatile, I decided that I would either sell when GLD was at its peak or when GLD was at the intra-day low. These were the only opportunities for me to enter the market with either a Call Spread or a Put Spread.

I decided to sell a Put Spread eventually when GLD decided to dip somewhere after 11.30am US time. The Bollinger Bands showed very clearly where the market was headed, and I missed the first opportunity of a Call Spread.

Subsequently when it was at the lowest point (See Diagram below), I finally managed to catch a Put Spread that had sufficient safety and locked in a trade for GLD Put Spread $138.5/139.5 for a premium of $0.07. I also placed an auto cut loss on advance order in the event that spread is greater or equals to $0.23. The contingent order would kick in and I would lose a total of $0.23-$0.07, which was $0.16. I set that as my max loss that I would wanna lose for the trade.

Thank God that has worked out fine. :) GLD finally closed at $140.91 after an uncertain and very volatile trading day last night. My trade expired worthless of course. :)

AprWk4 - CREE Wednesday Market Update

AprWk4 - CREE Wednesday Market Update. My eyes have been drawn to take a look at this particular counter. The movements last night was interesting to say the least. The reason why is simply because it gapped downwards, but slowly made its way upwards by the close of the day. What an interesting way to interpret a sideways movement if you think about it.

It was a blue candlestick, but it actually dropped $1.23 at the end of market trading, but instead of a red candlestick, it is ironically a blue candlestick because it started from a gap down position. It closed $57.69 the night before, but last night it closed at $56.46.

Interesting. ;)

AprWk4 - SPY Wednesday Market Update

AprWk4 - SPY Wednesday Market Update. There is something strange going on. After last night's movement, the SPY is somewhat at a standstill. It opened at $157.83 and closed at $157.88 with day ranges of between $157.54 and $158.30.

There is a bearish Tenkan Sen cross and it just means there could be a slowing down of the bullish momentum. I am waiting for a stronger signal, but this signal could be the start of a very bear momentum coming soon.

Let's see how the market unfolds tonight. :)

AprWk3 - GLD Market Summary

AprWk3 - GLD closed at $135.47. Interestingly, GLD was a terrible mess the whole week. Last Friday saw one of the most bearish one day drops in a long time. This scary bloodbath was repeated, and doubled on Monday trading day with a continuation of the bearish sentiments. GLD dropped $18+ in a matter of two days.

Premiums were stressed beyond belief, and fears renewed. It was the perfect moment to sell a spread. Either Put or Call spreads were offering unbelievable premiums. All that was left was my appetite for risk and how much I wanted to profit from the market. Of course high risk equals higher losses, and this is evident even in the weekly options game.

You got to respect the market, and play your cards carefully. Any wrong moves could result in a terrible cut loss situation, and set you back by at least 4 weeks in your quest to making profits weekly. On Friday, GLD open higher but ended lower. However, the low was higher than the close on Thursday.

Why is this so? I don't really know at this stage. All I can say is, GLD took a beating this week, and this is evident in the charts above. I said all that to say that even in the bleak situation above, if you can spot an opportunity, you can still sell a spread.

I sold a GLD Call Spread $136.5/137.5 for a premium of $0.07. The trade was filled, and it expired worthless. Return on investment was 4.95% for the week. ;)

AprWk3 - SPY Thursday Market Update

AprWk3 - SPY Thursday Market Update - As projected, last night was a drop. Now it is still a weak bearish drop, which suggest that it could be a long in coming correction, and perhaps it is so. The two moving averages of the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen are still moving together for the moment. How long will this collaboration last? Let the market decide tonight.

Yesterday's SPY closing came to a screeching halt at $153.14 after having dropped $0.97 with an intra-day low of $153.55. My estimated trade of a Put Spread for $149/150 at a premium of $0.05 did not materialize. I guess the drop last night was no deep enough.

So my next question naturally would be, is there going to be another drop tonight? If this is a minor correction, then the SPY is likely to recover, and get back on track to its all time high. If however, the market should decide that this is the end of the bull-run, then we might see the weak bearish sentiment become a much stronger one. If the SPY were to drop another dollar, we might see the SPY threatening to pierce into the Kumo (Cloud).

So what's the trade tonight (Friday US time morning)? Well that remains to be seen, if there is a drop, which I think it might be quite unlikely, then I will sell a Put Spread, however, if the SPY were to recover, I might try hunting for a trade in GLD. ;)

AprWk3 - SPY Wednesday Update

AprWk3 SPY Wednesday update - The trigger has been set in motion. From the charts above, you can see the Chikou Span cross historical prices. This is a weak bearish signal, but coupled with the Kijun Sen cross from the bearish red candlestick last night, we are definitely looking at a reversal Thursday tonight (US time morning).

So will there be more downside to confirm that we are finally approaching the end of the bull-run, or are we going to see a reversal tonight with the SPY shooting back up again. The market is definitely in a state of indecision, while the premiums for any trades might not be looking very safe.

Still, it is good to keep our eyes peeled for any potential spread to sell. :)

AprWk2 - SPY & GLD Market Summary

AprWk2 SPY Market Summary - From the looks of it, we have reached another all time high. The market closed at $158.80. The Kijun Sen and the Tenkan Sen are merged together for the moment, signaling some indecision in the markets and possibly a change in direction soon. Or it could move together in tandem like what it did a couple of weeks ago, and keep everyone in suspense.

This week technically is a great week to sell a call spread for the SPY, the market opened strong on Monday and then Tuesday, it also went upwards. It was a good opportunity to sell a Call Spread. But I was too busy to enter.

Wednesday was a huge surge upwards, and it would have burst the $159/160 trade that I was looking at. The next safe trade would be the $160/161 which was available, and even that was close to shutting down on Thursday when the market stretched upwards and nearly crossed over the $159.71. Very close shave. I was too timid to enter into the market.

I was in fact certain that I could sell a trade on GLD come Friday.

AprWk2 GLD Market Summary - I was looking closely at GLD when the market opened. The market had gapped downwards already by about $2.40 and I was all ready to enter into a trade. I was looking at selling the Put Spread $146/147 for a premium of $0.06, and I could easily get it tonight especially after seeing the premiums so stressed.

Then I thought, it is not usual that the market would gap downwards, not especially for GLD, which is technically supposed to be tapered down on expiry day. Well, one thing I learnt from my years of investment is that you are never as smart as the market. The moment you try to trick the market, you will no sooner realise that the joke's on you.

So I did the wise thing amidst moments of uncertainty, and that was to watch. I had a feeling that GLD would dip a little and that I would be able to sell a nice Put Spread and possibly make a premium of at least $0.08. Little did I realise there was a lot of shifting of money from GLD to US markets. The SPY is at an all time high, and commodities naturally had to take a back seat as investor let go of their GLD holdings.

The lowest that GLD went to on Friday was $143.43. It closed at $143.95, after a spiraling drop of more than $7 dollars. If I had sold the trade, I would have been caught with my pants down. Let's just say it would have burnt out my entire account (and a lot more).

Needless to say, many must have been caught. It's the bloodbath of the year, indeed one that we haven't seen in a long time. GLD is still going down by the way.

AprWk1 - SPY Tuesday Market Update

AprWk1 - SPY Tuesday Market Update - Last night's performance saw the SPY reached a 52 Wk high of $157.21. From the looks of the charts, there is more upside to this. :)

Let's hope that tonight the SPY goes up a little more and we can find a trade. The daily up down patterns are just not conducive to determine if there is a potential trade to be made, of course I could take a risk and be foolish, but if I were ever to be wrong, I would be the one to pay the heavy price for it.

Anyway, price risen upwards, the Tekan Sen is also moving upwards. That's fine because the real impact is when there is a Kijun Sen cross, that's when it will be a real bearish situation. For now, it looks like an all time high weekend.