MarWk5 - SPY Market Summary

MarWk5 or Q1 March - SPY Market Summary - A look at the market this week shows a little indecision. The price has decidedly moved upwards and lifted up from the Tenkan Sen. This was going to be a short trading week in lieu of the Good Friday holidays.

The market opened downwards on Monday and went upwards again on Tuesday, and there was a moment of indecision on Wednesday as the bears ran out of steam. The market closed on a week high on Thursday before the Good Friday holidays. The interesting thing was, the premiums were very lean all week, and the ranges all were telling the trader to take a risk.

To be honest, I saw a trade on Thursday night, it was like calling out to me. But I decided to forgo it because I was going to a funeral wake that same night. I was looking at Selling a Call Spread for Gold at $155.5/156.5 for a premium of $0.05. I would have won the trade, but I didn't really wanna also sell the trade and think about it all night when I was with my friend. I want to be fully present. :)      

I am looking forward to a better AprWk1 and hopefully I can find something safe to trade. ;) The rule of thumb is, there is always an opportunity to make money. It's all about the timing.

MarWk4 - SPY Market Summary

MarWk4 - SPY Market Summary - The SPY closed on a week high, and again, there was nothing significant to trade. Actually there was, but I didn't have the chance to take a good look at it.

If you see the charts above, the market was uncertain all week. There was movement, but the movements were up and down and they weren't indicative of a strong bullish pattern nor bearish movement.

The movement above just shows that it is moving sideways, which means that the risk of a trade going sour is low, if you know what the trade for the week would be, but if you took a wrong decision, it could prove to be costly especially when the trade moves against your decision.

I am sure there is a better trade next week for me. :)

MarWk3 - SPY Market Summary

MarWk3 - SPY Market Summary

MarWk3 - SPY has been one of the most interesting movements. The Tenkan Sen has finally lifted from the close movement with the Kijun Sen and that has alleviated some tension that the massive price drop is coming.

Well from the looks of it, it doesn't look like that will happen anytime soon. Even though technically Friday was a correction of sorts. I think there is still some more upside to all this. Although, I must say, now looking at the chart above, the Tenkan Sen is moving upwards to meet with current price. That said, is that an indication that there is going to be a Tenkan Sen cross with price? I surely hope not.

My trade of a Put Spread last week paid off finally and I clocked in an ROI of 2.95%. It was a hard fought return as I only managed to get it on Thursday night in the wee hours of the morning, and there it was for the taking. :)

Looking forward to MarWk4 for some exciting movements, and hopefully I will be able to find another good trade. :)

MarWk3 - SPY Thursday Market Update

MarWk3 - Thursday Market Update - From the looks of the charts above, I think it is pretty self-explanatory. The Tenkan Sen is moving upwards, thanks for price which saw a +0.825 increase closing at an all time high of $156.73. A very good rally I must say. Price is sufficiently above the two moving averages, and it looks like it might be the trend for now.

The general trend from the ichimoku indicator shows that it is moving upwards, and that's a good sign that everything is fine. It's a good time to also consider writing covered calls now that mini-options are gonna be released come March 18. I am looking forward to that strategy. It makes sense for small time investors like myself.

Last night around 1.31am (SG Time), which is also 1.31pm (US Time, daylight saving has kicked in), I saw an opportunity to sell a trade.

Own Trade: Sell SPY Put Spread $153.5/154.5 at a premium of $0.05.

I think it should be a fairly safe trade, judging from the current trend this week. It should either open flat or upwards tonight, and even if it opens downwards, I doubt we will be seeing a big downward movement of more than a dollar in the SPY tonight.

In any case, always good to be prudent, I will monitor and cut loss if needed, and place my contingent order. :) Let's hope for the best!

MarWk3 - Wednesday Market Update

MarWk3 - As we approach towards the end of the first quarter, this is what it looks like at the end of market day on Wednesday 13 March 2013. From the looks of the ichimoku indicator, the Tenkan Sen has lifted from the Kijun Sen, which is a good thing. This is a bullish movement. Price is also safely above the two indicators unlike before (K) where price crossed both indicators at the same time suggesting that there could be a transition.

That transition did not happen of course. In fact, it went on like that for a couple more days until only recently when the two moving averages decided that it was time to separate. Much to the applause of the crowd? Who knows. There are some that are fairly confident that we might see the end of the rally, while others are hopeful that we will be able to see new highs. It's a gamble to say the least.

To be fair, from the current state as reflected by the indicator above, it looks bullish. There looks to be more upside to wherever it is that we are heading towards. Will we see a new high? Looks very likely unless some bad news is to rock the stock market, I think we might see an all time high from 2007 before the great crash. The gradual upward climb of the cloud gives me hope personally. So I am definitely rooting for a higher high. :)

MarWk2 - SPY Monday Market Update

MarWk2 - The performance of the SPY yesterday was interesting as it has in a strange manner, climbed higher yet again. The Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen are still moving closely together in tandem. To me, it is still a bullish market, simply because there is no clear indication that the trend is reversing as yet.

Perhaps some folks might say that this is an uncertain market since it looks as if we are on the verge of a potential reversal signal coming soon. However, with the way the market is moving upwards, it won't be for long before the Tenkan Sen breaks away from the Kijun Sen for a higher climb upwards.

Does that mean we will start to see something phenomenal as a breaking of the all time high of 2007? It's already very near. :) I remember that time, every stock that I bought, shot up to the sky. That was also the time when it all suddenly came tumbling down. :(

Well, the good thing is my trade last week for SPY $154.5/155.5 for a premium of $0.04 was safe! The option expired worthless and I couldn't be more happy with that. Let's see what happens this week. It looks like the market is indeed searching for the higher high. :) Maybe there is a selling opportunity tonight. :)

MarWk1 - SPY Turning Point?

MarWk1 - The SPY as of Thursday's market closing has dipped slightly ($0.3) to close at $151.61. This market movement is somewhat uncertain as it did try to climb upwards towards breaking the 2007 all time high at the start of trading, but the excitement kind of fizzled out by market close into negative territory.

What is more important is the beginning of a convergence of two moving averages in the ichimoku indicator. The Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen have met each other. While price is still above the moving averages, there is still no cause for worry as yet. All is contingent on what happens tonight. Will it go up some more or will it mark the start of a downward trend?

If the SPY dips significantly enough tonight (Friday trading day) and the Kijun Sen Crossover the Tenkan Sen, then we are gonna see a change in trend, and that means the market is going into bearish territory. If it is a large bearish candlestick tonight, then I will definitely be on the lookout for a Put Spread to sell and lock in an Iron Condor. :)

Well, let's see how it goes tonight. In any case, it is quite unlikely that the markets will go up to $154.5 at closing. That said, I can safely say, my trade is safe. :)