MarWk1 - SPY Market Update

MarWk1 and the SPY looks like they are back on a bullish track again. The selling opportunity for a Put Spread yesterday at $144/145 at a premium of $0.06 is totally gone. Sigh. I was staring at that opportunity for a while, but decided that I needed more "ammunition" in case I needed to place a contingent order for Friday during expiry.

The decision to place a trade on Monday was as a result of the uncertainty in the Italian Elections, and the persuasive power it had on the US markets. Admittedly I didn't expect to see such a huge negative reaction in the markets by Monday markets close. A drop of $2.89 was a tad unnecessary in my opinion, but I am not complaining.

I sold a Call Spread at $154.5/155.5 at a premium of $0.04. Had the markets gone down further by Tuesday's market close, my trade would have been iron-clad safe, but in an interesting twist, after Wednesday's market close, the current price of the SPY is right where it left off on Monday trading day. Should I say, almost exactly where it left off? ;)

If it wasn't two days till expiry, I would be quite bothered by it, but since it is already Thursday, I would think my trade is quite safe. :) Well at least it looks safe at the moment. I don't think there is enough buying power in the market left to push prices till $154.5 by Friday, but as they say, it's anything goes in this markets. I will have to monitor closely, and if need be, I might have to cut loss. :(

MarWk1 - Monday SPY Blood Bath

There is nothing more fearful than a large red candlestick that you can't control. :) As much as the market-makers may hope for good news, the fact is, the markets are all interdependent on each other. In this case, the uncertainty in the Italian elections last night drew blood in the US markets.

The bearish crossover of price to the Kijun Sen is a real sign that if the tension is not mitigated, it might be downhill from here on. A sequel to another Eurozone crisis? It seems to be so.

Will we see another bearish signal happening when the Kijun Sen cross and rises above the Tenkan Sen? It looks that way. The two moving averages are converging and if the markets takes another beating tonight, then we are gonna be looking at selling some Put Spreads. :)

As it is last night, I felt possessed enough to lock in a SPY Call Spread $154.5/155.5 at a premium of $0.04. The trade looks very safe this morning, but as they say, anything can happen in this market. But if it drops another $2+ tonight, I will surely be looking to lock the trade with a Put Spread. Exciting times. :)

FebWk4 - GLD Market Summary

GLD (gold) has been in bearish territory for a while now, there is just more downside to that, it doesn't seem like there is going to be a breakthrough anytime soon.

Last week's opportunity presented itself, and I sold a Call Spread for GLD $155/156 for a premium of $0.05 and the option expired worthless. :)

Based on the performance of GLD, I think there could be another selling opportunity this week. :) Let's see what the market offers for us tonight. :)

FebWk4 - Thursday Market Summary

FebWk4 for the SPY is really interesting. The SPY has taken a huge beating over the trading day and has dropped $1.90+. That's a good sign, at least for me, and contingent on the performance tonight, if it drops, then we are in for some really interesting trades.

I could possibly sell a Put Spread for the SPY and look to sell a lower spread. Alternatively, I could also opt to sell a Call Spread for GLD (gold) since it is technically spiked upwards as well.

Here's the chart for the performance last night. GLD has been trending downwards for a long time. This is evident from the ichimoku indicator.

It is 11am US time, and GLD is upwards at $1.74 countering the large red candlestick from yesterday! (diagram above) The trend is still downwards, there is more downside to GLD, and in my opinion, it is still going down.

So I decided to place a trade for a Call Spread on GLD $155/156 for $0.05 premium. I hope I am right and I know time decay will work in my favor. Otherwise, it is going to be a very sad sad week for me. Anyway, let's keep our fingers crossed. :)

FebWk4 - SPY Market Summary (19.02.2013)

FebWk4 (Tuesday) market trading day was slightly bullish at the beginning, and slowly the market crept upwards. It's quite a decisive movement to say the least. Last week's trading was a little uncertain, with trades moving sideways for almost the entire week.

At the moment, the market is still very bullish, and the trends from the ichimoku charts seem to indicate that it is that way - very bullish. How long will this trend be? Well, who really knows.

But that said, I am looking for a Call Spread for the SPY tonight. Hopefully I will be able to find something nice. :)

FebWk3 - SPY Market Summary

FebWk3 (aka Feb13) happened over the traditional Chinese Lunar New Year period. It's significant for us Singaporeans as it is for Chinese people all around the world. So I would assume people are celebrating their holidays and the markets as well is probably reflecting that as well.

I was looking for a Put Spread in fact, my own trade for Gold. I queued $153/154 $0.04 but unfortunately the trade wasn't filled. It would have been a good and safe trade if it was filled on Friday 15 Feb. Interestingly though on Thursday night (SG Time), I was actually considering a Call Spread for the SPY at $154/155 0.05. It was there available for the taking, but admittedly I was kind of "chicken". I didn't want to take that risk, and in the end, it wasn't any real risk at all.

Oh well, too bad. At least I am still safe. :) I will just have to look at FebWk4 for that elusive trade then.

FebWk2 - SPY Market Summary

FebWk2 - SPY performance is beautiful. The SPY has yet again closed at an all time high. This is evident in the candlestick showing a blue upward movement. The good thing is, price is above the Kijun Sen now.

The bad thing is (in my opinion) the Tenkan Sen is now suddenly catching up and trying to converge with the Kijun Sen. This just means that it might be the end of the bull-run? Not to worry, it might not happen, at least not for two trading days at least. But it would be interesting to see where the market leads this week.

The good news is, I clocked in 1.95% ROI for the trade last week. :) Not too bad considering that it was a risky trade. But at least the calculations paid off. :)

FebWk2 - Tuesday Summary

Based on last night's SPY's movement, is this the start of another highly volatile up and down roller coaster movement? Maybe.

The candlesticks are relatively large and they are upwards and downwards movements which seems to suggest that there is some kind of uncertainty or indecision? Hmm.. I think it could be a bearish signal. Why would I say this, well, for one thing the SPY is already at an all time high. There can only be two results, either up or down.

I am more inclined to think that it might be a downward movement. I say this because the Kijun Sen has cut across current price which is represented by the candlestick. It is generally a signal (at least for me) to take note that there might be an opportunity that it might start a downtrend. Am I right? Well, let's see what the market gives us tonight.

That said, I sold a Call Spread last night. My guess is that it cannot go any higher. $153/154 at $0.04 premium. :) Hopefully I will win this week.

FebWk2 - Monday Update

FebWk2 Monday for SPY is really an interesting movement. As they say what goes up must eventually come crashing down. Maybe it is coming and crashing down tonight.

It is a bearish sign because price has cut through the candlestick. If it drops anymore tonight, it should be a very good buying opportunity.

FebWk1 - SPY Market Summary

FebWk1 was indeed an uneventful week. Why would I say that since the market is at an all time high. The market is evidently very bullish. The spike upwards on Friday saw the SPY end trading at $151.24. The spread that was available that had any meaningful premium was the Call Spread 151.5/152.5.

Admittedly I nearly sold that trade. There was a tempting $0.08 premium for me to sell, but I thought what if it ended at $151.5 and my trade got assigned. It would undoubtedly ruin my weekend. So I opted out. That was the smart thing to do. But as they say hindsight has perfect vision and is fond of stating the obvious.

I am glad that I sat out this week. For good reason too. The SPY is at an all time high. The money markets pumped money into the economy, and also it was the week non-farm payrolls were announced. Not a wise decision to trade? Maybe. But honestly, the range wasn't available.

FebWk2 should be interesting. Let's see what's in store for that tomorrow. Maybe it might be a good thing to sell something on Monday. :)